Global Shield Newsletter (20 December 2023)
The good, the bad and the urgency of global risk reports
This twice-monthly newsletter highlights the latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR).
‘Tis the season… of global risk lists. Various groups – research, geopolitical, insurance, consulting, government – are unveiling the set of risks they think the world faces. The lists are largely a pulse-check on what experts and the public are worried about. And they provide an opening to engage governmental leaders. But these reports are only as useful as the actions they instigate. Analysis must be catalysis. Not paralysis.
Getting global risk assessment right
Over the next month, a number of top global risk lists will drop. The World Economic Forum will issue their Global Risks Report 2024 report, ahead of Davos over 15-19 January. Eurasia Group and SPGlobal, both focused on geopolitical risk, will announce their 2024 risks in the first week of the year. And Allianz will release their Risk Barometer for 2024 by mid-January. These reports are coming off the back of last week’s Global Catastrophic Risks 2023 report, an annual report by the Global Challenges Foundation. AXA recently published their Future Risks Report, the tenth edition and based on thousands of survey responses. And global consulting firm, Protivi, just delivered their top risks for 2024 and 2034 using perspectives of company directors and executives.
Policy comment: Assessment of global risk has grown over the past decade. It is a valuable exercise that provides policymakers, the public and business leaders greater know-how on the types of challenges they need to grapple with. Each report has different time-scales, methods and audiences. Still, similar themes have emerged in the most recent releases: climate change, cyber threats, geopolitical instability and competition, biodiversity loss, artificial intelligence, pandemics and infectious diseases, and macroeconomic risk. But keep in mind two hitches when reviewing the results.
First, these efforts typically assess, and list, a set of threats. This threat-specific lens can under-state the vulnerability side of the risk equation. The potential for harm – that is, the risk – can only be assessed by understanding how the threat meets each country’s unique vulnerabilities. This lens can also overlook how the threats interact with each other, creating convergent risk. In some cases, the same factors drive various threats, enabling common mitigation measures. A more holistic approach to risk assessment would provide audiences a more nuanced and actionable view for reducing risk.
Second, risk lies on a spectrum. The same source of risk presents a range of scenarios, each with different likelihoods (frequent to very rare) and scale of consequences (minor to catastrophic). Risk cannot be pinpointed by a singular value of likelihood and consequence. For example, climate change is already upending local ecosystems, while less-certain tipping points could be catastrophic. Infectious diseases – like respiratory infections, malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS – kill millions a year. Meanwhile, global pandemics are rare but disastrous. Artificial intelligence is already harming through bias and crime. It could also exacerbate catastrophic nuclear or biological risk. Focusing on one point of the spectrum might lead to neglecting or misprioritizing threat vectors. Instead, policymakers should focus on threats that scale and take actions that reduce risk across the spectrum.
Two official-led global risk assessment processes are underway. The UN’s Global Risk Report, an outcome out of the UN Secretary-General’s 2021 Our Common Agenda, aims to provide an overview of the risks faced by the world and its member states, to inform multilateral institutions and processes. Regular updates in future years are expected. Separately, the US government is leading an assessment under the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (GCRMA, 6 U.S.C. §821). It is the world’s first government-led assessment of existential and global catastrophic risk. The precise timings for the completion of both reports are pending. However, we expect further developments, and likely release, during 2024.
Policy comment: The value of these reports are not in the verdict alone. Their production provides an opportunity to engage governments around the world. Ultimately, governments should turn these assessments into actionable plans that reduce risk. In particular, GCR policy researchers and advocates should be ready to highlight key findings, spot areas where national or multilateral processes are missing or require repair, and flesh out policy responses that address GCR as a whole.
Regardless of the specific findings, these reports should inspire other governments – especially to put in measures that better understand and govern global catastrophic risk. Outside the US, countries can look to conduct their own risk assessment to inform their preparedness and resilience. For example, the GCRMA requires that the US government develop annexes to existing ‘Federal Interagency Operational Plans’ to provide for the basic needs of its population following catastrophes.
A continued message to governments should be that global catastrophic risk is not a long-term or future issue. The threats are not dark clouds on the horizon. They are tempests raging over our heads. And the vulnerabilities that enable a risk to be global or catastrophic – like complex supply chains, exhausted resource systems, and geopolitical and political fragilities – are only growing. The sources of global catastrophic risk are here, now.
Nor is it extremely unlikely. In a recent forecasting competition, participants estimated the likelihood of a catastrophic event out to 2050 – one that reduces the global population by 90 percent – at around 5 percent. Of course, these odds contain a high degree of uncertainty. But they point to an unacceptable level of risk. And call for an urgent level of action.
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